未来气候情景下广西冬季农业气候生产潜力的变化特征

Change of Winter Agricultural Climatic Potential Productivity of Guangxi under Future Climate Scenario

利用区域气候模式(PRECIS),模拟生成A2情景下广西冬季气温和降水气候情景数据,经模型订正后,应用迈阿密模型(Miami Model)和桑斯韦特纪念模型(Thornthwait Montreal Model)估算基于广西冬季平均温度、降水量的作物生产量和平均蒸散量的作物气候生产力,预估未来广西冬季农业气候生产潜力的时空变化特征。结果表明:基于未来广西冬季平均温度估算的作物生产潜力随时间呈增长趋势,具有南高北低的纬向空间分布特征;基于冬季平均降水量估算的作物生产力和蒸散量估算的作物气候生产潜力随时间推移而减少,呈现东多西少的经向空间分布特征。未来广西的冬季热量资源良好,但是受降水限制,基于平均蒸散量估算的广西冬季作物气候生产潜力下降,使得广西冬季农业气候生产潜力下降的趋势明显,表明降水量是广西冬季农业气候生产潜力的决定性驱动因子。

In this study, it is meaningful to make a thorough inquiry to explore the fact that the agricultural climate production potential will be involved in climate change in Guangxi. The PRECIS （Providing Regional Climate for Impact study） regional climate modeling system was used to generate the winter climate scenario （ SRES/A2） dataset over Guangxi. The simulated temperature and precipitation were corrected with different model methods. Then the Miami model and Thornthwait Montreal model were used to produce the estimation of Guangxi winter temperature, water and evapotranspiration climate production potential, being estimated the temporal and spatial distribution and variation characteristics of Guangxi winter climate production potential in the future. The climate production potential of temperature with an increasing trend over time, and the North South high-low latitude to the space distribution characteristics in the future in winter in Guangxi. The climate productive potential of precipitation and evapotranspiration estimation would decrease time by time, showing from east to west to the spatial distribution characteristics. The winter heat resources was well for farming in the future in Guangxi, but it was restricted by the limitation of precipitation, making the rapidly decrease of the evapotranspiration climate production potential. It showed that winter rainfall was the decis- ive driving force for winter climate production potential.