基于未确知测度的矿井瓦斯防治管理体系评价

Evaluation of gas prevention and control system based on unascertained measurement model

为反映煤矿瓦斯灾害防治工作的整体状态,针对煤矿瓦斯防治管理系统存在未确知信息的特点,筛选影响煤矿安全的相关因素,建立矿井瓦斯防治管理系统安全等级评价指标体系。基于未确知测度理论、方法和矿井瓦斯防治管理系统指标体系中诸多不确定性因素,运用层次分析法确定各级指标的权重值;通过计算各评价指标的未确知测度向量,建立未确知测度函数向量模型;依据置信度识别结果,最终确定矿井瓦斯防治管理系统的评价等级,并将所构建的模型应用于新疆某煤矿。实践表明,用该模型得到的评价结果与现场实际吻合。

According to the characteristics of unascertained information in coal mine gas prevention and management system,factors affecting coal mine safety control were ientified to reflect the overall status of coal mine gas disaster prevention and control,and a safety evaluation index system of mine gas prevention and management system was established. Based on the unascertained measure theory and method,according to the uncertainties in the index system,weighs of the indexes were determined by using the analytic hierarchy process,and the unascertained measure vector of each evaluation index was quantitatively analyzed,an unascertained measure function vector model was built,according to the confidence of recognition results,and the evaluation level was determined.The model was applied to a certain coal mine in Xinjiang.The practice shows that the model can fully utilize the uncertain information contained in the research question,combine qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis,and be used to otain evaluation results conforming to the reality.