村镇居民生活模式模拟在地震死亡估计中的应用

Modeling living pattern of China village and township residents and its application in earthquake fatality estimation

突发公共安全事件中的人员伤亡取决于危害因素与人群的时空分布的重合程度,建立健全的居民生活模式参数模型库可为地震等突发性公共安全风险防范和应急管理提供依据。报告了在中国较大范围开展的村镇居民生活模式参数问卷调查(HAPRRES)结果,包括生活模式参数、优化建模方法和仿真方法等。着重分析了种植业者群体的生活模式参数及其模型,发现区分不同的日工作安排(以日工作段数为参数)对活动参数分别建模,并且模型稳健性较好。利用模型库仿真再现得到人群分布,拟合出我国地震中毁坏建筑物内处于睡眠或清醒状态居民的不同死亡率,证实不同空间和活动状态的居民的伤亡概率有显著差异。

Human fatality or injury in a public safety incident depends on human exposure,i. e.,the extent tempo-spatial distribution of the human and that of the hazard overlap to. Building models for human living pattern will give a scientific base for the prevention of public safety risk and emergency management thereof. This paper reports the China Human Activity Pattern of Rural Residents Survey（ HAPRRES） conducted nationwide,including the surveyed activity time parameters,the method to model them,and the simulation technique to represent the population tempo-spatial distribution thereby. For crop farmers,the daily working schedule,indicated by the daily number of work spells,should be determined firstly,and other parameters,pertaining to each working schedule,should be modeled separately. The models so built are found to be relevant and robust. Using the simulated human tempo-spatial distribution,this paper fits a model to fatality data in China earthquakes and reveals that the fatal probability for the people in sleep and the people who are awake differ considerably in death rate,which confirms the significance of differentiating the conscious states of people.