信贷渠道及宏观经济对房地产价格传导效应研究——基于VAR模型

Research on theReal Estate Price Conduction Effect of the Credit Channel And Macroeconomic——Based on the VAR Model

房地产市场价格在近几年一直高居不下,政府进行调控的效果与预期也存在一定差距。针对房地产价格问题,首先选取2016年10月至2017年1月共57组数据,然后建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,研究货币政策的信贷渠道和宏观经济景气程度对房价的传导效应,再利用脉冲响应分析货币供应量、人民币存款准备金率、宏观经济景气指数的正向改变对房地产价格的冲击作用,并在此基础上采用方差分析研究二者对房价的方差贡献率,最后提出适度调整货币供给的速度、保持货币供给量调控政策的相对独立性、政府要力求做到土地的开发要顺应经济的发展等调控房地产价格的建议。

The real estate market prices have been high in recent years, and government regulation also exists a certain gap between the real and expected effects. In view of the real estate prices, firstly, the paper selects a total of 57 sets of data from October 2016 to December 2017 and then establishes a vector autoregressive（VAR） model to do research on the effect of credit channel and macroeconomic degree. The author then uses the impulse response analysis to study the effect of Renminbi deposit reserve rate, money supply and macroeconomic climate index of positive change to the variance contribution rate of housing prices. Finally, the paper puts forward the suggestion such as adjusting the speed of the monetary supply, maintaining the relative independence of monetary supply regulation and control policy. What＇s more, the government should strive to do land development to adapt to the development of economy.