社会保障提升能有效促进居民消费吗?——基于分位数回归与反事实分解方法的研究

Can Social Security Promotion Effectively Promote Resident Consumption?— Based on the Study of Quantile Regression and Counterfactual Decomposition

长期以来,消费不振是困扰中国经济健康发展的一个重要因素。文章系统考察了我国社会保障提升与居民消费之间的关系,研究发现:不同类型的社会保障对居民消费影响是不同的,与医疗保险相比,养老保险对居民消费支出增加起到了更为明显的促进作用;社会保障提升对不同消费层次居民的消费支出影响也是不同的,对中低消费层次居民的正向影响更为显著;社会保障仅仅对国有企事业单位居民的消费收入弹性差异有显著影响;社会保障对非国有企事业单位居民的消费弹性影响度要大于对国有企事业单位居民的消费弹性影响度。研究结果表明,社会保障提升是解决居民消费支出的瓶颈因素,社会保障已经成为解决体制问题(城乡差别、行业差别、地区差别)的重要手段。

For a long time, sluggish consumption is an important factor that affects the healthy development of China＇s economy. This paper systematically studies the relationship between social security promotion and resident consumption in China. The study shows that：The effects of different types of social security on resident consumption are different. Compared with the medical insurance, pension insurance plays a more obvious role in promoting the increase in consumer spending; The effects of social security promotion on consumption expenditure of residents at different consumption levels are different, and the positive effect on the residents of low consumption level is more significant; Whether the social security only has a significant effect on the elasticity difference of consumption in come of residents instate-owned enterprises and institutions; The consumption elasticity effect of social security on residents in non state-owned enterprises and institutions is greater than that on residents in state-owned enterprises and institutions. The study shows that social security promotion is the bottleneck to solve consumer spending. Social security has become an important way to solve the institutional problems（urban and rural differences, industry differences, regional differences）.