空气污染排放与经济增长的关系研究——基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量模型

Research on the Relationship between Air Pollution and Economic Growth— Based on the Spatial Econometric Model of China's Provincial Panel Data

文章基于中国31个省市的2004-2014年的面板数据,并使用扩展的库兹涅茨曲线模型,对于经济增长、城镇化率,产业结构与三种空气污染物排放之间的关系进行研究,并介绍了空间计量模型的R语言操作。研究发现:各省市之间的工业废气、SO2排放和烟尘排放具有空间相关性和空间依赖性;经济增长和三种空气污染排放之间都存在着倒U型关系,烟尘排放的拐点最高;地区间的空气污染排放的空间影响是复杂的,不是简单的单向关系;第二产业产业结构增大则会加重了三种空气污染排放;高城镇化率加重了工业废气排放,而减少了SO2排放和烟尘排放。

This paper selects the panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative areas in China from 2004 to 2014 and employs the extended Kuznets curve model, to study the relationship between economic growth, industrial structure, urbanization rate and three types of air pollutant missions. And the paper introduces the R language operating spatial econometric model. The research finds that： Industrial emissions, emissions of SO_2 and soot emissions have spatial correlation and spatial dependence among all provincial-level administrative areas; There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and three types of air pollution emissions, and soot emissions of inflection point is the highest; The spatial effect of regional air pollution emissions is complex, not a simple one-way relationship; The increase of the second industrial structure will intensify the three types of air pollution emissions; High urbanization rate increases industrial emissions, while reducing SO_2 emissions and soot emissions.