瓦斯爆炸事故风险耦合分析

Analysis of Risk Coupling of Gas Explosion Accidents

运用物理学、协同学、灾害学等学科相关概念,对瓦斯爆炸事故的风险耦合的定义及类型进行了界定;其次以复杂系统风险涌现为视角,构建了瓦斯爆炸事故风险耦合层次网络模型,并利用N-K模型分析了各风险因素之间的耦合关系.结果表明:瓦斯爆炸事故是微观风险因素间的非线性耦合导致宏观层级结构状态发生阶跃式突变的结果,该过程中风险因素耦合越多越易引发瓦斯爆炸事故;在控制风险耦合的过程中,客观因素造成的耦合风险比主观因素造成的耦合风险更难控制.

The connotation and types of risk coupling of gas explosion accidents were defined on the physics,synergetics and catastrophology concepts. Moreover,hierarchical network model of risk coupling of gas explosion accidents was constructed from the perspective of risk emergence for a complex system. Then,coupled correlation of risk factors was analysed by using the N-K model. The result shows that gas explosion accidents are the consequence of stepping mutation from the nonlinear coupling between micro risk factors to macro hierarchical structural state,and the more the number of coupled risk factors is, the easier the gas explosion accidents are triggered. In the control process of risk coupling,risk coupling of objective factors is more difficultly controlled than that of the subjective factors.