收入不确定性、住宅价格对城镇居民消费的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Income Uncertainty and House Price on Urban Residents Consumption

为科学检验我国城镇居民的房地产财富效应,以生命周期-持久收入假说为理论基础,通过引入收入不确定性因素推导出住宅价格对城镇居民消费行为产生影响的理论模型。基于1999年~2014年我国31个省份年度面板数据,利用所建构的理论模型对我国城镇居民房地产财富进行固定效应计量检验。结果表明:在收入不确定性情境下,我国城镇居民房地产财富效应虽然显著,但影响方向并不一致。一方面房地产价格上涨对于非居住消费的影响显著为正;另一方面房地产价格上涨对于居住消费的影响显著为负。因此,必须采取抑制房地产市场过度投机需求、优化居民资产结构和降低收入不确定性等策略,有效促进我国城镇居民消费持续升级。

In order to scientifically examine the real estate wealth effect of domestic urban residents, with Life-cycle-per- manent income hypothesis as theoretical foundation, this article deduces the theory model for the impact of house price on ur- ban residents consumption behavior by introducing the factor of income uncertainty. Based on the annual panel data of 31 provinces in China within 1999-2014, this article uses the established theory model to take fixed effect quantitative test on the real estate wealth of domestic urban residents. The results indicate that： under the situation of income uncertainty, the impact direction is not uniform though the wealth effect is significant. On one hand, the impact significance of rising real estate price on non-residents consumption is positive, on the other hand, the impact significance on the resident consumption is negative. Thus, we must adopt the strategies of inhibiting excessive speculating demand in real estate market, optimizing resident asset structure and reducing income uncertainty to effectively improve the continuous upgrading in urban resident consumption of China.