摘要
采用2011年8月~2016年6月间我国饲料价格(以玉米、豆粕价格为代表)、加工价格与猪肉价格的月度数据,运用脉冲响应函数等方法分析三者之间的关系。结果表明:猪肉产业链中上游饲料价格波动是造成猪肉价格波动的主要因素,猪肉价格波动反作用于玉米价格;上游饲料价格波动与中游加工价格波动影响单向通畅;下游猪肉价格波动是引起中游加工价格变化的主要因素。基于结论提出保证玉米、豆粕的持续供应,加强屠宰加工与流通环节的管理,引导从业者理性决策,建立猪肉一体化生产体系等建议。
By adopting the monthly data within 2011.8-2016.6 of forage price （corn and soybean residue price as repre- sentative）, processing price and pork price of China, this article uses impulse response function and other methods to analyze the relationship. The results show that： the forage price fluctuation in medium-upstream pork industrial chain is the main fac- tors resulting in pork price fluctuation, and the pork price fluctuation reacts upon the corn price; the upstream forage price fluctuation and midstream processing price fluctuation keep one-way clear; the downstream pork price fluctuation is the major factor resulting in midstream processing price variation. Based on the conclusion, this article puts forward suggestion to guaran- tee the continuous supply of corn and soybean residue, strengthen the management of slaughter processing and circulation link, guide practitioners to make rational decision, and establish pork integration production.
作者
陈哲蕊
田文勇
吴秀敏
CHEN Zhe-rui TIAN Wen-yong WU Xiu-min(School of Management Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu Sichuan 611130 School of Economics and Management Tongren University, Tongren Guizhou 554300 School of Business Sichuan Agricultural University, Dujiangyan Sichuan 611830)
出处
《价格月刊》
北大核心
2017年第3期47-52,共6页
基金
四川省科技厅科技支撑计划项目"生猪现代产业链高效配套技术研究与产业化示范"(编号:2013NZ0056)
