地方政府债务置换对商业银行影响路径与效应分析

The Influencing Path and Effect Analysis of Local Government Debt Replacement on Commercial Banks

本文通过分析地方政府债务置换对商业银行的影响效应,认为债务置换在对银行造成短期冲击的同时,还会从根本上转变地方政府的融资行为和融资方式,进而长期影响银行的发展模式。面对上述影响,一方面在地方债务置换制度安排上要尽量缓冲对银行经营的短期冲击;另一方面银行应主动突破自身对政府融资平台的路径依赖,不断优化信贷资源配置,探索内生增长新模式。

Through analyzing the effect of local government debt replacement on commercial banks, the paper thinks that the debt replacement brings a short-term impact on banks, and at the same time, will fundamentally change financing behaviors and ways of local governments, and further influences banks’ development mode for a long time. In the face of all these effects, on the one hand, the local debt replacement system arrangement should buffer the short-term impact on banks’ operation as far as possible. And on the other hand, banks should actively break through their path dependence on the government financing platform, unceasingly optimizes the allocation of credit resources, and explores new modes of endogenous growth to achieve transformation and upgrading.