内需拉动经济增长的实证分析——以江苏省为例

Empirical Analysis of Domestic Demand-driven Economic Growth:A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

基于我国地方存在乱建的现象,分析了近几年国内经济发展压力增大的现状,从拉动内需——消费和投资两个角度分析,以江苏省为例选取了1991年到2014年的固定资产投资额、社会消费零售额以及地方生产总值,运用Eviews软件中ECM模型对数据进行处理。通过分析得出,固定资产投资和社会消费零售与地方生产总值具有正相关性,说明其对经济增长具有拉动作用,但是固定资产投资对经济的拉动作用更为明显。结合目前地方官员考核制度,容易导致对固定资产投资过度,因此,倡导按需建设,对固定资产投资实行离任审计。

Based on the phenomenon of chaotic construction in our country and the pressure of domestic economic development in recent years,this paper analyzes the situation of stimulating domestic demand-consumption and investment.Taking Jiangsu province as an example,this paper selects the period from 1991 to 2014investment in fixed assets,retail sales of social consumption and GDP,and uses ECM model of Eviews software to process the data.Through the analysis,the relationship between fixed asset investment and social consumption has positive correlation with GDP.It shows that it has a stimulating effect on economic growth,but the pulling effect of fixed asset investment on economy is more obvious.At present,local officials assessment system easily leads to excessive investment in fixed assets.Therefore,it is needed to advocate on-demand construction and the implementation of fixed assets investment audit.