基于产品使用率的二维延伸性汽车产品保证需求预测研究

A Two-Dimensional Extended Warranties Service Demand Forecast Based on Usage Rate

在当前我国经济持续发展的环境下,汽车产业正在飞速发展,二维延伸性汽车产品保证研究已经成为产品保证领域研究的热点与国际前沿领域。为了保障二维延伸性汽车产品保证策略设计的合理性,本文基于产品使用率划分汽车消费者人群,并引入实验经济学理论构建二维延伸性汽车产品保证需求预测模型,对二维延伸性汽车产品保证服务进行需求预测分析。研究结果可以为我国汽车制造企业及汽车研究中心等机构制定二维延伸性汽车产品保证策略提供重要理论参考。

As China continues to prosper socially and economically, the national automobile industry is developing rapidly and steadily. China has become the world＇s largest car manufacturer and automobile consumption market. With the rapid development of automobile industry, vehicle consumers have a higher demand for warranties service. Meanwhile, the hysteretic nature of automobile extended warranties service policy and consumers＇ increasing demand for two-dimensional extended warranties service have become a prominent contradiction problem. In recent years, two-dimensional extended warranties service has become top issues among international scholars. In order to ensure the rationality of the design strategy of two-dimensional extended warranties service, this paper carried out a study on the demand forecast of two-dimensional extended warranties service based on the usage rate. In this paper, we classify consumers into three groups including low usage rate consumers, medium usage rate consumers and high usage rate consumers, which are based on the usage rate. This paper further analyzes the demand of two-dimensional extended warranties service of the three groups, respectively. Given the constraints of the traditional demand forecast methods, this paper applied the experiments with economic principles to the demand forecast process of two-dimensional extended warranties service. In addition, this study carried out the two-dimensional demand forecast analysis for extended warranty services. The purpose of of this study is to investigate two-dimensional extended warranties service demand forecast, and have a better understanding of research status of two-dimensional extended warranties service demand forecast. First of all, this paper reviews the warranty strategy and demand forecast of automobile industry. This paper also discusses the characteristic of the traditional demand forecast method, and illustrates the necessity of the research on the demand forecast analysis of two-dimensional extended warranties service based on experiments with economic principles. Secondly, this paper designs the experiment parameter combined with automotive fault distribution function and product usage distribution function, and then establishes a two-dimensional extended warranties service demand forecast model based on product usage rate. Due to the logical experiment design, we can get a rational experimental analysis and effective experimental results. In the end, an example of a type of vehicle produced by an automobile manufacturer in China illustrates the procedure of the proposed model. In the case study, we use the two-dimensional extended warranties service demand forecast model to forecast the demand of the two-dimensional extended warranties service. Experimental results show that we can fit the trend of the two-dimensional extended warranties service of the three consumer groups. The results of this study provide automobile manufacturers and automotive research center with guidelines on formulating two-dimensional extended warranties strategies.