石油减产协议后的供给侧形势及油价走势研判

An Analysis of Supply-side Situation after Signing of Oil Cut Agreements and Forecast of Oil Price Trend

2016年底,在欧佩克主导下达成了两项石油减产协议,宣告其近年来以"挤出战略"遏制美国页岩油产业发展的策略失败了,欧佩克不得不重拾"限产保价"的政策,以缓解各国的财政压力。协议达成后,国际油价获得小幅提振。然而,减产协议进一步显著推升油价的能力受到了市场的普遍质疑。这不仅由于协议参与国在执行产量配额方面的低信用度,更重要的是,协议达成后依然刷新峰值的欧佩克原油产量,以及在技术发展和政策扶持的双重红利下强势崛起的美国页岩油产业,共同构成了处于历史高点的全球原油供应量。而与之相应的是持续疲软的全球经济环境下增速低迷的国际需求,以及居高不下的石油库存量。综合来看,供需再平衡的道路将异常艰辛。此次减产协议可能会起到消纳库存、短期提振油价的作用,但由于减产不可能是长期行为,欧佩克市场调控力趋弱,再加之美元加息、政治局势动荡、突发事件和能源多极化发展等因素的影响,预计高油价时代难以再现。

In late 2016,two oil production cut agreements were reached under the leadership of OPEC,marking the failure of the cartel′s strategy of flooding the market to cripple the US shale industry and a shift back to the policy of limiting production to maintain prices in order to ease member states′financial pressure.International oil prices slightly increased following these agreements.However,the ability of these agreements to significantly drive up oil prices has been widely questioned by the market.This is not only because the countries to these agreements have low credit in fulfilling production quotas,but also because,more importantly,the OPEC crude production,which continues to set new records even after the signing of the above agreements,and the strongly emerging US shale oil industry,which has benefited from the dual bonuses generated by technological advances and policy incentives,together constitute the global crude supply,which is now at an all-time high.What is in sharp contrast is the low international oil demand in the context of a sus-tained depressed world economy as well as a long-time high oil inventory.Overall,the world will have a long way to go to achieve a re-balance between its oil supply and demand.The production cut agreements may help digest inventories and give a short-lived boost to oil prices.However,production cut cannot be a long-term measure and OPEC′s ability to regulate the market is weakening,not to speak of the influence of other factors such as US interest rise,political turmoil,sudden events and the diversification of energy sources.It is expected that a high-oil price era is not very likely to come again.