中国城市居民国内旅游需求的成本结构与邻居效应

Cost Structure and Neighbor Effect of Domestic Tourism Demand of Chinese Citizens

旅行成本结构和空间溢出效应是影响国内旅游需求的关键因素。基于停留时间外生和内生两类旅行成本模型,作者根据地理、经济和综合空间权重矩阵定义了三类＂邻居＂,并测度了国内旅游需求的空间溢出效应。中国39个城市2000~2007年国内旅游抽样调查数据的实证结果表明：第一,国内旅游需求具有显著的正向空间溢出效应,且以经济＂邻居＂的效应最为显著;第二,总成本、旅行成本和时间机会成本与国内旅游需求呈负相关且缺乏弹性,收入弹性小于时间机会成本弹性;第三,平均年龄与出游率之间存在U型关系,拐点位于44~45岁之间,这些游客具有相对更高的时间机会成本。因此,加强城市间的经济联系能有效地扩大国内旅游需求,提高旅游产品价格和针对那些具有较高时间机会成本的游客进行旅游营销有助于增加国内旅游收入。

Cost structure and neighbor effect are the two key determinants of domestic tourism demand. This paper defines three types of ＂neighbor＂ based on different spatial weights including distance weight, economic weight and comprehensive weight to test the neighbor effect of domestic tourism demand and introduce travel cost model with on-site time exogenous and endogenous to explore the cost structure of travelling including the total cost, travelling cost and opportunity cost. Based on the sampling panel data of 39 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2007, the empirical results show that： （1） the neighbor effect has a significantly positive impact on domestic tourism demand of sightseeing, and it is the largest in the case of neighbor defined in economic weight; （2） the total cost, travelling cost and opportunity cost have significantly negative impact on domestic tourism demand among all the models with kinds of spatial weights and all the cost elasticities are inelastic, while the income elasticity is less than the opportunity cost elasticity; （3） U-shape between the average wage and travelling rate is empirically tested and all these people between 44 and 45 years old have a higher opportunity cost. Therefore, strengthening economic linkage improving the tourism product price or tourism marketing targeted at those opportunity cost can effectively expand domestic tourism demand and income among cities, who have high