灰色系统在卫生人力供给趋势预测中的应用

The Application of Grey System in Health Manpower Supplement Forecasting

卫生人力供给预测是基于现有卫生人力数,毕业的医学生数,和由其他省调入我省的卫生人力数。卫生人力包括医师(士)。通过随机分层抽样调查,我们调查了五县三市13所医院的5637名卫生人力,包括2128名医师和3509名医士,得到不同年龄组各自的减损率,应用灰色系统对1986～2000年时的毕业生人数和由外省流入我省的卫生人力数进行了预测。根据以上数据,应用数学方法对目标年度的卫生人力数进行了预测,结果表明在1990,1995,2000年时出现卫生人力供给不足。

Health Manpower supplement forecasting is based on the baseline Health manpower, Graduated medical students, and Net Health manpower who enter our province from other province. Health manpower includes Physician and Physician assistant. We investigated 5637 health manpower (including 2128 physicians and 3509 Physician assistants) in 13 hospitals of 5 counties and 3 municipatities by stratified random sampling survey. We got the different reducing rate of different age group of Health manpower. We used the Grey System to forecast the Graduated student and Net Health manpower who enter our province from other province from 1986 to 2000. According to health manpower numbers obtained, We used Mathematics method to forecast the target years Health manpower numbers, which shows undersupply of Health manpower in 1900, 1995, 2000.