管理层盈利预测包含了公司投资质量信息吗?

Does Management Earnings Forecasts Include Information about the Quality of Corporate Investments?

对外披露的盈利预测和内部投资决策都需要管理层预测未来收益的能力。基于此,本文从预测能力视角,研究管理层盈利预测是否包含了公司投资质量信息。利用2008~2015年我国A股上市公司样本,本文研究发现:管理层盈利预测准确性与投资质量显著正相关,具体地,前三年平均盈利预测准确性越高,公司随后的过度投资或投资不足程度越低。进一步研究发现,环境不确定性程度与信息不对称程度越高,管理层盈利预测准确性与投资质量之间的敏感性越强。这些结论表明,管理层盈利预测包含了公司投资质量的重要信息。

Both external earnings forecasts and internal investment decisions require the ability of managers to forecast future earnings.Based on the perspective of forecasting ability,this paper studies whether the earnings forecasts issued by managers include information about the quality of corporate investments.Using a sample of A-share Chinese listed companies during 2008 to 2015,this paper finds that the accuracy of managements′earnings forecasts is significantly and positively related to the quality of capital investments.Specifically,the higher the average accuracy for earnings forecasts issued in the three-year period before the investment decision,the lower the over-investment and under-investment.Further,this paper finds that the higher the degree of environmental uncertainty and information asymmetry,the greater the sensitivity of investments quality to management earnings forecasts accuracy.Our evidence suggests that the managements' earnings forecasts include important information about the quality of corporate investments,which helps en-rich the theoretical literature on the relation between external information disclosure and internally financial decision-making,and provides an important practical reference for outside investors to make investment decisions.