风险敏感理论:需要驱动风险决策

Risk-sensitivity theory: Need motivates risky decision-making

风险敏感理论由研究动物觅食行为发展而来,提出有机体在有需要的状况下会出现从风险规避到风险寻求的行为,是风险决策领域内的一种生物学理论。目前风险敏感理论所做出的预测在动物和人类身上都获得了大量实证研究的支持,表明该理论可以解释很多领域中的风险决策。因此有必要对这一理论做一个系统的论述,包括对其理论来源和数学模型的发展演变进行梳理;从参照点等不同的角度分析该理论与其他决策理论的区别;并且,风险敏感理论也为经济不平等和权力等外部因素下的风险转移提供了解释,对已有研究做出了独特的贡献。

Risk-sensitivity theory, which is based on experimental examination of the foraging behavior of animals, proposes that decision makers shift from risk aversion to risk preference in situations of need. As a biological theory of decision making, predications based on risk sensitivity theory has been supported by both animal studies and studies involve human participants. Existing evidence suggests that risk-sensitivity theory can account for various patterns of decision-making in a wide range of domains. It＇s necessary to provide a systematic review of risk-sensitivity theory, incluoing its theoretical speculation, main arguments, and development of mathematical models. Distinctions among risk sensitivity theory and other well- established theories were also speculated in consideration of the reference point. Risk-sensitivity theory contributes to the literature as it provides additional explanations for shifts in individuals＇ risk taking tendencies under a wide range of situational factors, including changes in economic inequality and power.