蔡英文上台后台湾政治冲突扩散化研究

A Study on Tsai Ing-wen's Political Conflict Diffusion

蔡英文上台以来,台湾政治冲突主体多元化、冲突形式多样化、冲突强度暴烈化、冲突主题庞杂化,整体显现出政治冲突扩散化的态势。民进党的政治冲突文化、排他性政治参与、政策输出偏好和冲突结构的变化是台湾政治冲突扩散化的四个主要变量因素。这些因素的相互扰动和彼此作用,在台湾政治文化环境影响和政治冲突扩散化加剧的共同作用下,可能促使台湾产生新的政治变迁。

There have appeared in Taiwan the pluralism in political conflicting participants, the diversity in conflict form, the violence in conflict intensity and the complexity in conflict theme ever since Tsai Ing-wen came to power, which shows the overall trend of political conflict diffusion. In fact, the conflict diffusion mainly results from the four variable factors, that is, the DPP＇s political cultural conflict, the exclusive political participation, the preference for policy output and the changes in conflict structure. On the other hand, these factors interact with each other, which may trigger new political changes in Taiwan under the combined influence of the political and cultural environment and the intensity of the proliferation of political conflict.