湖泊生态系统稳态转换驱动因子判定方法研究进展

Review on Driving Factor Detection Methods of Regime Shift in Lake Ecosystem

湖泊生态系统会在长期的人为胁迫和短期的强扰动下发生稳态转换,灾变性稳态转换将会导致湖泊水环境在短时间内急剧恶化,进而延缓和加大治理的进程及成本。探求浅水湖泊稳态转换驱动因子是科学合理确定湖泊管理策略的关键所在,现有的驱动因子判定方法主要有实验观测、统计分析和模型模拟。实验观测缺乏对生态系统整体的判断,仅采用观测数据并不能得出导致稳态转换确切的原因和效应;统计分析难以对未来作出预警;模型模拟可有效规避上述2种方法存在的问题,特别是机理模型是今后分析稳态转换的主要方法。有必要加强统计分析与模型模拟的结合、生态模型与传统水质水动力模型耦合等方面的研究工作。

The lake ecosystem would undergo regime shifts triggered by long-term human threats and short-term strong disturbance.The catastrophic shifts can cause sharp deterioration of lake ecosystem in a short period of time and defer the process of restoration.For scientific decision of lake management,it is therefore essential to reveal the mechanism of regime shifts and explore the driving factors.To date,experimental observation,statistical analysis and modeling are the primary methods used for detecting and identifying driving factor of regime shift.Experimental observation is limited for the lack of identification of lake ecosystem as a whole and it is difficult to identify driving factor exactly only with experimental observation.Statistical analysis is based on history data.However before and after the regime shifts,the ecosystem structure and key processes will change dramatically,which would limit the detection or forewarning of regime shifts using statistical analysis.Model simulation,especially mechanism model,is considered to be an effective way to identify driving factor of regime shift.Here,some potential research focus was proposed based on the intensive literature review,including：（a） combination of statistical analysis and model;（b） coupling ecological model with hydrodynamic and water quality model.