中亚成员国对上海合作组织发展的影响:基于国家主义的小国分析路径

Effect of Central Asia Member States on Shanghai Cooperation Organization:Based on Nationalistic Small-Country Analysis

研究中亚成员国对上海合作组织发展进程的影响,具有重要的理论和现实意义。文本结合国家主义分析视角与国际关系中的小国研究成果,以一种国家主义的小国分析路径对此问题进行研究。其中,国家主义的视角确立了国家之于国际组织的主导地位,小国理论则强调了小国的自主性及其对国际组织产生的影响。文本认为,中亚成员国作为小国,至少可以通过其地缘战略价值、奉行多边平衡的外交政策、作为动荡的源头及群体数量优势四种途径对上海合作组织的发展产生影响。在此基础上,文本以上海合作组织成立之初、"9·11"事件、"颜色革命"、2008年全球金融危机及2010年吉尔吉斯斯坦动荡为时间节点,探讨不同时期中亚成员国利益需求的变化,进而分析各成员国利益需求变化衍生的态度与行为的变化及其对上海合作组织发展进程的影响。尽管上海合作组织启动扩员进程预示着其具有较好的发展前景,不过,其未来发展仍面临不少挑战。其中,如何在推动丝绸之路经济带建设的过程中实现与上海合作组织的对接,并避免上海合作组织的边缘化,是需要特别关注的一个重要问题。

The effect of research in central-Asia member states on the development process of Shanghai Cooperation Organization bears great academic and realistic significance. The writers, combining the analytic perspective of nationalism with small-country research in international of nationalism has established a dominant position by a country in international organization and small-country theory stresses the autonomy of small countries and their effect on international organization. The essay writers hold that central-Asia member states as small countries and source of unrest in large number take effect on Shanghai Cooperation Organization through other geographical strategic value and multilateral balanced diplomatic policy. On that basis, the writers, taking the establishment of Shanghai Cooperation Organization as time juncture, explore the change of interest demand from central-Asia member states during different periods and analyse the shift in attitude and behavior derived from change in their interest demand, which affects the SCO process of development. Though the SCO kicks off larger membership, siginifying its better development prospect, its future development remains confronted with quite a few challenges. How to realize connection with SCO in boosting Silk-road economic-belt construction as a major issue worthy of special attention.