东南亚油气资源供需形势分析

Analysis of southeast Asia oil and gas resources supply and demand situation

东南亚地区人口多,经济发展前景好,工业化和城镇化水平不断提高,是全球除中国、印度外,最具增长潜力的油气资源需求市场。研判东南亚地区油气资源供需形势,对全球油气供需格局演化具有重要意义。本文从油气消费历史出发,对东南亚地区油气资源需求进行预测,并在分析供应现状的基础上,判断未来东南亚地区的供需缺口以及对全球油气资源供需格局和油气贸易的影响。认为东南亚地区是未来主要的油气需求地区之一,需求出现较快增长,石油供应水平有所下降,天然气供应延续上升趋势,到2030年,石油缺口将扩大到3.3亿t左右,天然气也将从供过于求转变成供不应求,出现1 070亿m3的缺口。油气供需缺口不断扩大将加剧全球油气供需分离局面,并逐步加强环印度洋地区油气资源贸易量。

Southeast Asia has a large population and good prospect of economic development. Along with industrialization and urbanization level enhancing unceasingly, it has become the most potential of oil and gas resources demand market in the world in addition to China and India. Analysis of oil and gas resources supply and demand situation in the region is of great significance to the global oil and gas supply and demand pattern evolution. We start from the history of oil and gas consumption in southeast Asia, and forecast the demand of oil and gas resources in 2030. On the basis of the present situation of supply, we judge its supply and demand gap in the future, as well as analyze the impact on global oil and gas resources supply and demand trend and oil and gas trade. Think that southeast Asia is one of the main demand areas of oil and gas in the future, demand will grow rapidly. Oil supply level will decrease and gas supply will continue its upward trend. To 2030, oil gap will expand to 330 million tons, natural gas will also shift from supply exceeds demand to short supply and appear a gap of 107 billion m^3. Expanding gap between supply and demand of oil and gas will exacerbate global oil and gas separation of supply and demand situation, as well as gradually strengthen oil and gas trade in the Indian Ocean rim.