中巴经济走廊贯通对中国进出口贸易的影响——基于沿线国家产业层面数据的反事实模拟

Effect of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor on Chinese Trade:An Counterfactual Analysis Based on Industry-Level Data From One Road Countries

中巴经济走廊作为"一带一路"战略的重要组成部分,其贯通将对中国与周边国家的货物贸易运输环节产生巨大冲击。文章依据中国与中巴经济走廊沿线贸易伙伴国的贸易数据,引入预计贸易增长空间与极限贸易增长空间两个测度指标,结合回归分析与反事实分析方法测算中巴经济走廊贯通将造成的经济效应。研究结果显示:运输距离对中国与伙伴国贸易活动的抑制作用明显,伙伴国人口总量与区域贸易协定在中国进出口贸易上具有"非对称"特征;中国进出口贸易均面临典型的非效率问题,其中进口层面的效率问题更为突出;中巴经济走廊贯通将使中国出口与进口的预计贸易增长空间提升19.4%与10.1%以上,若进一步释放现有贸易环境的潜力,中国出口与进口的极限贸易增长空间将分别得到26.3%~263.6%与14.6%~779.7%的提升。

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor may change Chinese export situation due to its shock to logistics transportation. This paper employs stochastic frontier gravity model,introduces two indice of expected trade expansion and maximum trade expansion,to measure the effect of exogenous shocks from China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The results show that,transport distance restrains the trade significantly,and the effects of partner poplution or RTA shows typical asymmetry between Chinese exports and imports.Chinese trade situation has less-efficient problem,of which imports are more pronounced. Furtherly,given the counterfact of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,China would gain 19. 4% and 10. 1% increase of expected trade expansion in exports and imports,26. 3% ~ 263. 6% and 14. 6% ~ 779. 7% increase of maximum trade expansion accordingly.