受限水域船舶积压风险测度方法研究

A kind of measuring method for overstock shipping risks in the restricted waters

为了系统、客观地评估受限水域船舶积压衍生风险,实现对船舶积压风险的防控,进行船舶积压风险测度方法的研究。阐述了受限水域船舶积压风险的3种表现形式,提炼了风险表现形式的测评指标,提出了受限水域船舶积压指数,并建立了以二元Logistic回归为核心的风险测度模型,对积压风险测评指标进行量化处理,最后通过对三峡-葛洲坝枢纽船舶积压风险的实证分析验证测度方法的可行性。结果表明,受限水域船舶积压风险测度方法可以根据水域特征筛选积压风险主要测评指标,并最终得到积压衍生风险发生概率预测公式,预测并判断相应水域某一时期的船舶积压衍生风险严重程度,对实时测度和降低受限水域船舶积压风险、完善受限水域船舶通航安全预警和相关软件开发运用具有重要意义。

This paper is inclined to provide a systematic and objective assessment of the ship overstock risks in the restricted waters.For the research purpose,we have established a measurement method of the ship overstock risks and a risk measurement model by using a binary Logistic regression as a research core.All the above work having been finished,we began to do an independent sample t-test and the Logistic regression analysis of SPSS to filtrate and quantify the identification indexes of the overstock risk so as to gain the correlation degree between the main identification indexes and the severity of the ship overstock risks.Finally,we have conducted an empirical analysis of the ship overstock risk of the Three Gorges-Gezhou Dam Hub to verify the feasibility of the measuring method.The results of our analysis show that the constituent components of the ship overstock risks in the restricted waters can be divided into ships themselves,the behavior of the local workers and the environment factors concerned.The measuring method we have developed is supposed to be used to clarify the main evaluation indexes according to the water features,the output overstock risk probability prediction formula,and eventually to assess and determine the shipping overstock risks in the corresponding waters during a limited period assigned.According to the empirical analysis,the main evaluation indexes of the ship collision risks are the actual number of backlog ships for each month,the utilization rate of the related anchorage and the number of days of backlog ships for each month;the main evaluation index of the crew members＇ conflict risks per a thousand days of backlog each month.In addition,the main evaluation indexes of the water pollution risks should also be included into the utilization rate of anchorage and number of days of the backlog ships each month.What is more,the measurement method we have adopted can also have its practical or usability meaning in conducting a real-time measurement,in reducing the ship overstock risks in the restricted waters,so as to improve the ship navigation safety in the restricted waters with the aid of the related software.