近距平行跑道配对进近碰撞风险评估

Collision risk probability analysis for the paired assessment to the closely arranged parallel runways

近距平行跑道实施配对进近可有效提高机场容量,解决机场拥挤和延误的问题。为保证航空器的安全运行,研究其水平碰撞风险,基于导航设备测量误差和速度偏差,建立配对进近前后两机的实际侧向距离和纵向距离基于速度、时间的方程,在此基础上建立近距平行跑道配对进近的碰撞风险评估模型,给出模型中相关参数的计算公式。最后通过Matlab软件对该模型进行计算,给出了随相关参数变化水平碰撞风险变化的曲线图,并验证了模型的合理性。

The present paper is to make an exploration of the collision risk probability for the paired closely arranged parallel runways based on the positioning error distribution and velocity error distribution calculation.For the study purpose,we have established an actual longitudinal and lateral distance equation in terms of the velocity and time for the two aircraft to approach to the same airport runway.Needless to say,the paired approach to the closely spaced parallel runways can effectively improve the airport utility capability,though it may also lead to the likely congestions and delays for a busy airport,which makes it of great significance to study the collision risk of the paired approach to such parallel runways.Since the mutual distance between the two aircraft should be well arranged to avoid the unexpected collision,it is necessary to take close and careful account the upper and lower bounds of the aircraft arrival intervals by using a collision risk evading model.At the same time,it is necessary to set a wellthought-off distance gap minimum limit according to the air-flight need to avoid such collision risk probability.For the said purpose,we have to work out all the likely related parameters involved.Particular necessities are to be taken into consideration the leading aircraft in case they were extremely heavy in kind,though it would be better if the following one is lighter,for the wake turbulence produced by the leading aircraft tends to last longer and in turn may have greater impact on the following one.Based on all the aforementioned conditions,we have identified and determined all the necessary parameters in our simulated model by providing detailed calculation models.And,finally,we have verified and demonstrated how to use the model through a series of samples from an authentic airport operation and management practical experience.Thus,the innovative nature of this paper lies in that we have taken into full account the initial safety interval and the speed of variance as variables,in addition to the forecast of all the collision probabilities.Thus,it turns out that the probability of collision risk of the paired approach should be increased with the increase of the time with its maximum limit when the leading aircraft reaches the threshold.Therefore,the bigger the initial safety interval is,the smaller the probability of the collision risk,for the speed of variance has to be proportional to the probability of the collision risk or risks.