人民币实际汇率变化对出口转换的影响研究

How Do Real Exchange Rate Movements Affect China's Export Turnovers Within Manufacturing Sectors?

本文基于实际汇率变化对产业内部企业之间出口转换理论分析框架,采用1998~2009年中国工业企业数据和海关细分产品层面数据以及行业层面实际有效汇率指数,分析了工业企业出口转换的分布和变化特征,检验了实际汇率变化对行业出口扩张、出口收缩、净出口以及出口转换率的影响。研究结果显示:(1)控制了实际汇率的直接影响和通过进口中间产品渠道对出口的影响,实际汇率变化总体上对出口扩张率和转换率具有显著影响作用,但对出口收缩率和净出口增长率的影响不显著。(2)实际汇率总体变化对出口影响存在显著的不对称性;贬值相对于升值对出口变化和转换影响更为显著,贬值会对出口扩张和收缩率产生显著的同方向影响作用,进而会对出口转换率产生显著影响,但对净出口增长并无显著影响。(3)实际汇率暂时性变化主要会对出口扩张率产生显著影响,持久性变化主要会对出口收缩率产生显著影响。(4)长期来看,实际汇率持久性变化对低利润部门的出口扩张、收缩以及转换影响作用显著高于对高利润部门相应的影响作用。

framework is constructed to empirically test the impacts of exchange rate movements on export churning rates.Using firm-level panel data covering all industrial enterprises above designated size,detailed customs data at product level,and industry specific real exchange rate over the period from 1998 to 2009,this paper shows that:First,the real exchange rate movements have significantly impacted on export expansion and export churning rates,while the export destruction and net export growth rates are not significantly affected by real exchange rate fluctuations overall;Second,the export expansion rate and churning rate both are asymmetrically affected by real exchange rate movements.The export churning rate declining is closely associated with the real exchange rate depreciation,while there is no significant impact of real exchange appreciation on export churning rate overall;Third,the persistent and cyclical component of real exchange rates have different impacts on export expansion and destruction rates,which is an important reason why real exchange rate movements have asymmetric impacts on export expansion and churning rates.Fourth,the persistent change of real exchange rate can cause significant impact on export churning rate of those sectors with low profit margins,while the export churning rates of manufacturing sectors with high profit margins are not significantly affected by persistent movements of real exchange rate.