基于VENSIM的旅客综合运输模型

A Model of Passenger Comprehensive Transport Based on VENSIM

通过分析旅客运输方式与运输系统外部因素之间的关系,及经济、人口、基础设施建设等运输系统内部各种影响因素,运用系统动力学方法构建了旅客综合运输系统流图。采用效用理论分析了旅客出行方式选择机理,并运用Vensim软件构建了旅客综合运输系统分析模型。模拟结果表明:公路运输具有较高的运输效用,其次是铁路运输和航空运输;未来10 a内,铁路旅客运输效用将保持0.074%的年增长率,市场占有环比增长率为1.025%,航空旅客运输效用将保持0.182%的年增长率,市场占有环比增长率为4.282%。

By analyzing the relationship between passenger transport mode and the external factors of transport system,and various internal influencing factors of transport system such as economy, demography,infrastructure construction,an integrated passenger transport system flow diagram is built using system dynamics,the passenger travel mode selection mechanism is analysed using utility theory,and the passenger integrated transport system analysis model is built using VENSIM software.The simulation result shows that（1） road transport has a higher transport utility,followed by rail and air transport;（2） within the next decade,rail passenger transport utility will maintain the annual growth rate of 0.074% with the market share year-on-year growth rate of 1.025%,air passenger traffic utility will maintain the annual growth rate of0.182% with the market share year-on-year growth rate of 4.282%.