新疆能源消费、结构调整与经济增长的动态计量分析——兼论新疆经济发展的困境与破除

Dynamic Measurement and Analysis of Energy Consumption,Structural Adjustment and Economic Growth in Xinjiang—on the Predicament and Breakthrough of Xinjiang's Economic Development

为探讨新疆能源消费、结构调整与经济增长之间的关系,选取1978—2014年时间序列数据,运用协整检验、脉冲响应及方差分解等计量方法对三者之间的相互影响进行实证分析。结果显示:三者之间存在着长期稳定的关系;另外,动态脉冲响应和方差分解表明,经济的持续增长加大了能源需求的同时也形成了依靠能源消费来维持高速增长的路径依赖;能源消费作用于产业结构调整之余,却并没有使这种调整显著地推动经济的增长。在此基础上,指出新疆经济发展的两难困境,提出破解经济发展困境并使其走上高速、可持续的发展之路,必须通过技术的创新和应用来实现。

To clarify the relationship between energy consumption, industrial structure adjustment and economic growth in Xinjiang, using the time series data, co-integration test, the measurement method of the impulse response and variance decomposition, the paper analyzes the mutual influence between the three. The results show： there are long-term and stable relationship between the three; in addition, the dynamic impulse response and variance decomposition show that fast economic growth has not only increased the demand for energy, but also formed the mode of relying on energy consumption for maintaining high growth rate; energy consumption adjusts industrial structure, but it does not make this adjustment significantly promote economic growth. On this basis, the paper points out the dilemma of the economic development of Xinjiang, and puts forward that innovation and application of technology is the only way to break through economic difficulties and realize sustainable development.