旅游发展和经济增长关系实证研究——以亚太十国为例

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Tourism Development and Economic Growth —Evidence from Asia Pacific Countries

本文以亚太十国为例,建立了三变量的面板数据模型,对旅游发展和经济增长的长期均衡关系进行了实证研究。协整检验结果表明,人均实际GDP、国际旅游接待量和实际有效汇率三变量之间存在长期均衡的协整关系。面板群协整估计结果表明,旅游发展对经济增长的促进作用大于经济增长对旅游发展的促进作用,部门协整方程估计的结果则发现各国经济增长和旅游发展的相互促进作用和方向并不相同。面板格兰杰因果检验表明,短期来看,亚太各国旅游发展和经济增长之间不存在格兰杰因果关系。本文丰富了国际学术领域有关旅游发展和经济增长关系的实证研究成果,同时对于亚太各国制定旅游产业发展政策具有重要指导意义。

This paper tends to examine empirically the relationship between tourism development and economic growth of ten Asia Pacific countries by using the panel data and causality analysis among real GDP per capita, international tourist arrivals and real effective exchange rate. A long-run equilibrium relationship is detected from among the above mentioned variables. Estimation of panel co-integration equation shows a unidirectional relationship from tourism development to economic growth found in Asia Pacific countries in the long run. While the result from FMOLS estimation for individual country shows there is no unanimous directional relationship between tourism development and economic growth. And a further result from the panel Granger causality test also proves no short term Granger causal relationship can be detected either. This research has enriched the empirical study on the relationship between tourism development and economic growth in the tourism field and provided significant policy suggestions for tourism development in the Asia Pacific countries.