中国工业用水效率的动态演进及驱动因素研究

RESEARCH ON THE DYNAMIC EVOLUTION AND THE DRIVING FACTORS OF INDUSTRIAL WATER CONSUMPTION EFFICIENCY IN CHINA

选取中国31个省级行政区1999~2014年的面板数据,运用Frontier4.1软件测算了我国各省区历年工业用水效率值,还通过聚类分析方法将各省区分为高效率组、中效率组、低效率组进行工业用水效率差异分析,接着选择自然资源、经济水平、工业发展、工业结构、用水结构和政府影响这6个因素,构建Tobit回归模型对这6个驱动因素分全国、高、中、低效率组样本分别对工业用水效率的影响进行实证分析。研究结论如下:我国工业用水效率平均值呈现逐年上升的趋势;东、中、西部地区的工业用水效率值差异较为明显;工业用水效率整体分布从东南向西北逐渐递减的趋势;我国各省区的工业用水效率处于一种较快的增长趋势且地区间的工业用水效率差距在不断缩小;人均水资源量与工业用水效率呈负相关关系;经济水平驱动因素和工业发展驱动因素都与工业用水效率存在很强的正相关关系;合理的工业结构可以显著提高工业用水效率;政府作为对于工业用水效率的提高也是至关重要的。

In this paper,we selected panel data of China＇s 31 provincial administrative region from 1999 to 2014 to measure the industrial water efficiency calculated by using Frontier4.1. In order to analyze the regional difference, we divide the provinces into groups of high efficiency, medium efficiency and low efficiency through the clustering methodology. Then, we chose the natural resources, economic level, industrial development, industrial structure, water structure and the government influence as the driving factors of industrial water consumption efficiency, and built the Tobit regression model to analyze the industrial water consumption efficiency driving factors of China and the three groups empirically. We obtained the following main conclusions： the average industrial water consumption efficiency in China shows a trend of rising year by year. The industrial water consumption efficiency of east, mid and west has apparent difference. The overall distribution of China＇s industrial water consumption efficiency is decreasing gradually from southeast to northwest. Provincial industrial water consumption efficiency in is in a rapid growth trend and the gap of industrial water consumption efficiency between regions is shrinking. The per capita amount of water resources and the industrial water consumption efficiency has negative relationship. The economic level and the industrial development have very strong positive correlation with industrial water consumption efficiency. Reasonable industrial structure can significantly improve the industrial water consumption efficiency. The government action is also very important to improve the industrial water consumption efficiency.