中国体育用品制造业产能及利润影响因子相关性评价——基于VAR模型的实证研究

Relevant Evaluation of Productivity and Influence Factors of China Sports Goods Manufacturing Industry——An Empirical Study Based on VAR Model

选取我国体育用品制造业2003年至2011年企业利润总额、政府对体育设施投入额、社会的经济发达水平、从业人员数、企业数、企业税金总额等相关变量的月度时间序列数据,采用VAR模型,结合供给侧改革和全国体育市场现代化进程不断加速的现状,对我国体育用品制造业运营效率进行研究。结果表明:对体育用品制造业企业盈利能力影响最强的是企业数量、政府投入和税收,通过方差分解发现各自分别带来10.98%、9.89%和8.4%的贡献度;企业从业人员增加会对企业盈利带来正向冲击;经济发达水平贡献出1.83%左右的正向冲击,存在较大发展潜力。因此必须优化产业结构,去产能的同时建设人才梯队,并营造良好的外部经济环境。

Via VAR model and combined with the supply-side reform and the accelerating modernization of sports market, this paper studies the operating efficiency of China sports goods manufacturing industry by selecting the monthly series data of such relevant variables as the total profits of China sports goods enterprises from January 2003 to December 2011, the total government investment amount in sports facilities, the economy development level, the number of people employed, the number of enterprises and the total amount of corporate taxes. The results show that the number of enterprises, government investment and taxes are the most influential factors on the profitability of sports goods manufacturing enterprises with a contribution degree of 10.98%, 9.89% and 8.4% respectively through variance decomposition; the increasing empolyee number brings a positive impact on corporate profit; and that the e- conomy development level contributes a 1.83% positive impact with vast development potential. Therefore, it is nec- essary to optimize the industrial structure, construct personnel echelon while cutting excessive industrial capacity, and create a favorable external environment.