消费信贷市场均衡及其影响研究:一个无限生命跨期消费模型

Analysis on the Equilibrium of Consumer Credit Market and Influence——An Intertemporal-Comsumption Model of Unlimited Life

在非平稳收入过程、与收入相关的消费信贷上限假设下,通过加总微观跨期消费模型,考察消费信贷市场均衡。结果表明:消费信贷市场的潜在总需求大于总供给,市场均衡取决于总供给。消费信贷总供给的扩张存在规模边界。消费信贷同居民可支配收入之比是判断消费信贷总供给状态的重要依据。比例上升,消费信贷市场的总供给存在扩张空间。比例稳定,消费信贷总供给已经达到规模边界,总供给与消费信贷需求以及消费信贷市场风险相适应。规模边界下,短期刺激消费信贷供给的措施会使得高违约风险消费者获得消费贷款,增加市场违约风险。

Supposing that income changes over time, and the upper-limit of consumer credit market depends on income, when we bring in Micro- Intertemporal-Consumption Model, we can find that the potential demand outweighs .the aggregate supply, and the equilibrium depends on aggregate supply. There are scale boundaries to the expansion of aggregate supply. The ratio of consumer credit to disposable income is one of the important bases to measure the aggregate supply of consumer credit market. When the ratio increases, the aggregate supply expands. When the ratio keeps stable, which means the aggregate supply reaches to the scale boundary,the aggregate supply fits to the aggregate demand and market risk. Under the scale boundary, short-term measures to stimulate the consumer credit supply will bring consumer loans to people with high default risk, and increase the whole market default risk.