收入风险对生产效率和城镇化的作用机制研究——来自农村数据的分位数回归分析

The influence of income risk on rural development and urbanization——analysis of quantile regression of the data from rural areas

对农民收入风险种类进行了识别,确定了农民收入的两种主要风险:经营性收入风险和工资性收入风险,并且采用调整离差率法进行了测度和描述。在此基础上,利用分位数回归方法考察了它们的动态演进及其对农业生产效率、城镇化的影响机制。研究表明,经营性收入风险对农业生产效率的影响曲线呈现出倒U型形状,工资性收入风险对城镇化率的影响是一条缓慢上升的曲线。最后针对减少农民收入风险,增强抗风险能力,提出相应的政策建议。

The paper identifies the farmers＂ income risk, and groups two main risks： management income risk and wage income risk. Adjusting the rate is adopted to measure and describe risk accordingly. Based on this, the paper uses the quantile regression method to investigate their dynamic evolution and the influence system on agricultural production efficiency and urbanization. It shows that the risk in different development stages is different, and the impact mechanism is also significantly different. On this basis, corresponding policy recommendations are put forward to reduce the risk of farmers＇ income.