火灾中人员疏散羊群行为模拟研究

Simulation analysis of herd behavior in fire evacuation

介绍社会影响论、社会证明论,并基于两种理论解释羊群行为的形成机理。以某电影院为例,采用STEPS建立疏散模型,通过改变出现羊群行为人数的比例和安全出口的宽度模拟得到不同的疏散时间,研究羊群行为对疏散的影响。模拟结果表明,当较小比例(0~20%)的人员出现羊群行为时,促进人员疏散;当较大比例(>20%)的人员出现羊群行为时,减缓人员疏散;随着安全出口宽度的减小,羊群行为对疏散时间的影响逐渐增大。羊群行为对疏散的消极作用远大于积极作用,且对于较窄的出口消极作用更加明显。

The social impact theory and the social proof theory were introduced, and the formation mechanism of herd behavior is explained based on those two theories. Taking a cinema as example, a model was established by STEPS. By changing the proportion of herd behavior in the crowd and the width of the safe exit, the influence of herd behavior on the evacuation was researched. Simulation results showed that it will promote per- sonnel evacuation when the proportion of herd behavior is rela- tively small （ 0 ~ 20 %）, slow down the personnel evacuation when there is a large proportion （〉20%） of herd behavior. With the reducing of width of exit, there is more influence of herd behavior on evacuation. Herd behavior has more negative than positive effect on evacuation, and the negative effect on the more narrow export is more obvious.