影子银行信用创造对货币政策的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

The Influence on the Credit Creation of Shadow Bank on the Monetary Policy

影子银行作为金融危机之后的新生事物,引起了学术界的广泛关注。在影子银行对宏观经济的诸多影响之中,其信用创造对货币政策的影响最为显著。选取2012年11月到2015年1月的月度数据,通过建立VAR模型,探求影子银行的信用创造对货币供应量及货币政策的影响。研究结果表明,影子银行信用创造会导致货币供应量增加,从而削弱货币政策效力。因此,应加强相关学术研究、数据统计及监管力度。

Although shadow bank,as a newborn thing after the financial crisis,has aroused widespread concern in the academic community.Among influences of shadow bank on the macro-economy,the influence of the credit creation of shadow bank on monetary policy is the most significant.Therefore,this paper establishes a VAR model with monthly data from November,2012 to January,2015 to explore the influence of the credit creation of shadow bank on money supply,and the influence on the monetary policy.The results show that the credit creation of shadow bank would lead to the increase of the money supply,result in weakening the effectiveness of monetary policy.So we should strengthen the correlative academic research and data statistics and supervision force.