雅砻江流域近60a径流趋势特征分析

Analysis of runoff tendency characteristics of Yalong River for past 6 decades

为揭示雅砻江流域年径流趋势变化特征,综合运用Mann-Kendall法、累积距平曲线检验法、滑动t检验法以及R/S法等方法对锦屏水文站近60 a(1954~2013年)年径流量进行计算分析,总结出年际径流突变年份以及趋势特征,并采用线性回归法对突变年进行突变成因分析。结果表明:受降水和下垫面等因素影响,1967年为突变年,该年前后径流趋势呈显著突变,且在未来年份中年径流有递增趋势。研究结果可为调度人员掌握雅砻江流域水文特性提供参考,进而指导下游水库群联合调度工作。

In order to reveal the annual runoff tendency characteristics of Yalong River Basin,we analyzed the annual runoff data of Jinping hydrological station on Yalong River in recent 60 years（ 1954- 2013） by several methods including Mann- Kendall method,cumulative departure curve inspection method,sliding t test and R / S test,and summarized the runoff mutation year and tendency characteristics. In addition,we analyzed the mutation causes by linear regression method. The results show that influenced by the precipitation and underlying surface,the runoff mutation appeared in 1967; the runoff significantly changed around the mutation year and had an increasing trend afterwards. The results can provide important references for the dispatcher to master the hydrological characteristics of Yalong River basin and guiding the united dispatching of the downstream cascade reservoirs.