基于Logistic模型的我国商业银行房地产信贷风险研究

Research on Real Estate Credit Risk of Commercial Banks in China Based on Logistic Model

房地产贷款在我国商业银行信贷资产组合中通常占比很高,因此房地产企业的经营状况很大程度上影响着商业银行信贷资产的质量。当房地产企业出现违约,极易使房地产风险引入银行造成信贷风险,甚至导致金融风险。在各类信贷风险度量模型中,Logistic模型被证明能够很好地契合房地产信贷风险的特质。在选取沪深两市24家上市房地产企业2012-2014年的数据运用Logistic模型实证检验后,结论显示企业提高股东权益、现金流量以及短期偿债能力等能够有效降低房地产信贷风险,这对商业银行的信贷评估能够提供有价值的判断依据。

Real estate loans usually accounts for a very high ratio in the credit portfolio of China＇s commercial banks,so the operational conditions of real estate business affect the quality of commercial bank credit assetsto a large extent. If the real estate business defaults,it is very easy to make the real estate risk enter the bank credit risk,and even lead to financial risks. In all types of credit risk measurement models,logistic model proved to well fit the characteristics of the real estate credit risk. Based on data of 24 listed company of real estate enterprises from 2012 to 2014 in both Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange,we use logistic model to make an empirical test. The result shows that improving the shareholder rights and interests,cash flow and the short-term debt paying ability can effectively reduce the risk of real estate credit,which can provide valuable judgment for credit assessment of commercial banks.