基于空间计量模型的中国旅游业发展与经济增长关系研究

Relationship Between Economic Growth and Tourism Development of China Based on Spatial Econometric Model

文章以中国大陆31个省市为实证分析对象,运用空间自相关理论分析经济增长、国内及入境旅游业发展的空间分布特征和时空演变格局,再此基础上,运用2000—2013年面板数据的经典计量模型和空间计量模型对旅游业发展与经济增长关系进行探究。研究得出结论:在样本期内,经济增长、国内及入境旅游业发展具有空间集聚性,其空间分布格局变化不大;加入地理权重的空间计量模型更适合研究旅游业发展与经济增长之间关系;国内及入境旅游业发展对经济增长均有促进作用,且对经济增长具有显著的空间溢出效应,对比入境旅游,国内旅游业发展对经济增长贡献更为突出;忽略空间相关性和其他指标对经济增长的影响,均会夸大国内和入境旅游业发展对经济增长的作用等有利于中国旅游业与经济增长协调发展的建议。

Based statistical data of 31 provinces and cities in China's Mainland from 2000 to 2013 as the object of empirical analysis, the paper takes spatial autocorrelation test of economic growth, domestic and international tourism development index. First, we apply LISA figure to analyze the time and space evolution of economic growth, domestic and inbound tourism development choosing two time points for 2000 and 2013. Second, we use ordinary regression model and spatial econometric model to study relationship between tourism development and economic growth. The research shows that： during the sample period, economic growth, the development of tourism in domestic and international tourism show spatial agglomeration fea- tures; Compared with ordinary regression models, spatial econometric model joined geographic weighting is more suitable for research of the relationship between tourism development and economic growth; The development of the domestic and international tourism have promoting effect and positive spatial spillover effect on economic growth, domestic tourism contribution to economic growth is more outstanding; If we neglect of spatial correlation and other main indicators affecting economic growth, the contribution of domestic and tourism development to economic growth will be exaggerated. Finally, combining with the conclusion, the paper puts forward the coordinated development between tourism development and economic growth in China.