能源价格波动对中国经济的影响——基于DSGE模型的分析

Impacts of Energy Price Volatility on China's Economy:Analysis Based on DSGE Model

构建了引入工资粘性的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,利用贝叶斯方法对模型进行估计,着重研究货币政策冲击和能源价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响。结果表明:(1)能源价格的上涨短期内对产出的影响是正面的,但其负面影响却是长期的;(2)能源价格的上涨和利率的提高都加剧了通货膨胀,但能源价格波动对通货膨胀的影响程度明显不如货币政策;(3)五种外生冲击中,货币政策冲击和能源价格冲击对经济的影响最大,货币冲击持续的时间最长,能源价格冲击影响的强度最大。因此,应对能源价格波动、稳定经济增长需要各项政策的配合。

This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium（DSGE）model with wage stickiness.And focuses on the effects of monetary policy shock and energy price shock on China＇s macro economy.The main findings are as follows：（1）Short-term effects of rising energy prices on output is positive,but it is has long-term negative effects.（2）The rise in energy price and lending rate have exacerbated inflation,but the impact of energy price on the inflation rate is significantly weaker than monetary policy.（3）Among the five exogenous shocks,the shock of monetary policy and energy price shock are larger than other shocks,monetary shock lasts the longest time,meanwhile,energy price shock has the most influence on macro economy.Thus,facing energy price volatility and stabilizing the economy need the cooperation of various policies.