中国经济的“双重”结构转型与非平衡增长

The "Dual" Structural Change in China and Non-Balanced Growth

本文构建了一个包含两个产业三个部门的动态经济增长模型,描述了近三十年来中国经济由农业部门向非农业部门、由国有部门向非国有部门的"双重"结构转型过程,以及所导致的部门间的非平衡增长。模型内在解释了产生经济"双重"转型的根源:由于部门之间的替代弹性都是大于1的,技术进步率的差异导致了国有部门和非国有部门之间的转型;要素收入份额的差异导致了农业部门和非农业部门之间的转型。此外,在平衡增长路径上,经济各部门出现了非平衡增长。最后,本文利用中国1978—2011年的数据,校准了模型主要参数,通过数值模拟验证了本文模型与现实数据的拟合度。

We develop a dynamic growth model with two industries and three sectors in this paper. It characterizes the process of economic transition from agriculture to non-agriculture, from state to non-state sector, with the associated non-balanced seetoral growth during the recent thirty years in China. The model endogenously explains the source of dual structural change： since the elasticity of substitution between sectors is larger than 1, the difference in technological progress leads to the transition between state and non-state sectors. , while the difference in factor income share leads to the transition between agriculture and non-agri- culture sector. Besides, there is non-balanced sectoral growth in the Balanced Growth Path （BGP）. Finally, we calibrate our model using the 1978-2011 data in China. The numerical simulation verifies the fitness of the model to the real economy.