预期冲击与中国房地产市场波动异象

News Shocks and Real Estate Market Anomaly in China

本文在总结2001—2014年间中国经济与房市运行经验事实的基础上,构建了包含房地产市场的新凯恩斯模型,并引入技术等四类预期冲击。研究结果显示:技术预期冲击为房价2002—2012年间缺乏基本面支撑的飙升以及2013—2014年的下跌提供了解释;而借贷预期冲击和不可预期的利率冲击对房产需求变动的主导有助于解读调控政策"调量不调价"现象;在房价上涨"替代效应"的作用下,预期借贷紧缩冲击经由经济人行为调整会产生房市"越调越涨"的困境和房价飙升与消费疲软共存的房市过热现象。

Based on the empirical research indicating that there exists real estate market anomaly in China during period of 2001--2014, our study quantifies the expectation-driven cycles for housing market fluctuations by estimating a New Keynesian model. We find that （1） News on technology shock significantly contributed to the abnormal booms in housing price from 2002-2012, and the persistent bust since 2013. （2） Expectations of credit shock and unanticipated interest shock accounted for the situation of ＂quantity decreases but price untouched with control measure＂. （3） Expectations of credit crunch resulted in ＂the tune ris- ing more＂ by substitution effect, housing price run-ups would suppress consumption at that time.