中期政策利率传导机制研究——基于商业银行两部门决策模型的分析

The Transmission Mechanism of Mid-term Policy Rate

当金融市场不完美时,短期利率向中长期利率传导会遇到阻碍,因此发达经济体在应对国际金融危机中使用了非常规货币政策调控中长期利率。我国金融市场发展还不成熟,利率市场化还在进行之中,为此中央银行创新了作为央行利率的中期政策利率进行间接调控。本文基于我国商业银行内部相互分割的两部门决策机制,建立了三阶段博弈的理论模型,分析了中央银行以中期政策利率先后影响信贷市场以及货币市场和债券市场的传导机制,将市场化因素引入商业银行资产负债表,从而建立了不完美金融市场条件下市场化货币政策传导机制的微观基础。模型结论表明央行中期政策利率对引导商业银行贷款数量和利率具有显著作用,其效果明显优于央行短期政策利率。

Based on the two-sector decision making mechanism inside China＇s commercial banks, we establish a three-stage game theory model to analyze how the medium-term policy interest rate affects the amount and interest rate of commercial bank loan, and how it affects money market and the bond market accordingly. We introduce the market factors into com- mercial bank balance sheets, and establish the microcosmic basis of monetary policy transmis- sion mechanism. We find that central bank medium-term policy interest rate has a significant effect on the amount and interest rate of commercial bank loan, which is superior to central bank short-term policy rates.