基于灰色预测模型和曲线拟合的重庆市水污染状况预测

Prediction of Water Pollution in Chongqing Based on the Grey Prediction Model and Curve Fitting

为了更有效地治理重庆市水环境污染,以重庆市2003-2013年排放废水中所含化学需氧量和氨氮量比例为基础,分别通过SPSS曲线拟合、线性回归、Matlab编程建立灰色预测模型预测2020年重庆市水污染状况的变化趋势。结果表明,灰色预测精度为0.026%~2.685%,通过精度检验。重庆市废水中所含化学需氧量比例呈线性或指数下降趋势,而氨氮量比例则呈波动式或指数上升趋势,应从工业源、城镇生活源、农业源、水库源等方面抑制废水中氨氮量比例的上升,并进一步保持化学需氧量比例的下降趋势。

To effectively control water pollution in Chongqing,based on the proportion of cod and ammonia in the wastewater of Chongqing in 2003-2013,the change trend of water pollution situation in Chongqing in 2020 was predicted by SPSS curve fitting,the linear regression method and Matlab programming grey prediction model.The results showed that through precision test,grey forecasting precision was between 0.026% to 2.685%.The proportion of cod in municipal wastewater in Chongqing was linear or exponential decline,while the proportion of ammonia nitrogen was rising in a fluctuant way or exponential rise.We should curb the rising proportion of ammonia nitrogen in wastewater,and further maintain the proportion of cod decline from aspects of industrial sources,urban life,agricultural sources,reservoir sources and so on.