基于Markov模型的定值失配点风险评估

Risk Assessment of Mismatch Point of Setting Value Based on Markov Model

在实际工程应用中,继电保护人员会根据电网结构人为设置一些失配点,为了使失配点的设置更科学有效,提出一种基于Markov模型的定值失配点风险评估方法。基于Markov模型对保护定值的运行状态进行仿真模拟,提出失配风险的定义及其计算方法,并建立全网定值失配点风险指标的寻优模型,利用遍历法对风险模型进行寻优,获取全网最低失配风险对应的全网保护定值。最后通过实际算例验证该方法的可行性及有效性,进而得出基于Markov模型的全网定值风险评估结果可正确设置失配点,为保护人员、调控人员设置失配点提供依据。

Relay protection personnel may set artificially some mismatch points according to the structure of power grid in the practical engineering application. In order to make the setting of mismatch points more scientific and effective,a risk assessment method of mismatch point of setting value based on Markov model is proposed. The operation status of protection setting values is simulated based on Markov model,and definition and mismatch risk and its calculation method is proposed. The optimization model for the risk index of mismatch point of setting value of the whole power grid is built and the traversing method is used to searching the optimal solution of the risk model and to obtain protection setting values of the whole power grid corresponding to the minimum mismatch risk of the whole power grid. Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of the method is testified by practical examples,and it is obtained furthermore that the risk assessment result of setting value of the whole power grid based on Markov model can be used to set mismatch point correctly which provides basis for the relay protection personnel and dispatching and control personnel to set mismatch point.