新疆物流与金融协同发展预测评估

Forecast and Evaluation of Coordinated Development between Logistics and Finance in Xinjiang

为有效评估区域物流与金融协调发展水平,从"丝绸之路经济带"发展战略出发,构建物流与金融协调发展预测评估指标体系,运用综合指数模型测算新疆2005—2014年区域物流和金融发展指数,在此基础上,通过灰色系统预测模型分别对2015—2019年物流指数与金融指数进行预测,并采用距离协调度模型评估其协调发展状况。结果表明:总体上,新疆物流与金融发展水平均呈不断上升趋势;2005年以来,新疆物流与金融发展耦合协调状态虽然不断得到优化,但仍处于轻度失调状态。预测结果表明,新疆未来物流与金融系统的协同发展将有较大提升空间。最后,提出促进新疆物流与金融协同发展的相关建议。

In order to effectively evaluate the coordinated development level between regional logistics and finance, based on the ＂the silk road economic belt＂ initiative, the forecast and evaluation index system of coordinated development between logistics and finance is established, and the regional logistics and financial development index in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2014 are calculated by using comprehensive index model in this paper. Based on above, the logistics index and financial index from 2015 to 2019 are forecasted independently through grey system forecast, and their coordinated development status is evaluated by using distance coordination degree model. The result shows that the development level of logistics and finance in Xinjiang presentsa a rising trend in the mass; Since 2005, although the coupled coordination status between logistics and finance in Xinjiang has been continuously improved, they are still on a slight imbalance situation. The forecast result shows the coordinated development between logistics and finance in Xinjiang will have large promotion space in the future. In the end, the paper puts forward relative suggestions on promoting the coordinated development.