基于SD模型的土地可持续集约利用情景模拟

Scenario Analysis of Sustainable Land Intensive Use based on SD Model

目前,既集约又可持续的土地利用方式是解决人地矛盾问题的重要途径之一。文章以北京市为例,采用系统动力学方法,构建了土地可持续集约利用模型(Sustainable Land Intensive Utilization Model,SLIUM),模拟和分析了北京市土地利用现状以及不同情景下的集约度变化。研究结果表明:土地利用的集约度变化遵循土地报酬递减规律,基于现状北京市土地利用集约度将在2020-2060年达到最优状态;通过人口、经济、土地利用等不同情境的政策调整,可以实现土地集约度周期性持续提升;本模型通过精度验证,相对误差控制在±5%,有很好的稳定性和还原性。这一结果为土地管理提供了合理依据,也为政策制定提供了科学的决策支持,具有一定的借鉴意义。

The intensive and sustainable way of land use is one of the most important approaches to solve the issue of contradiction between human activity and land resource. In this paper, the system dynamics method was used to construct the sustainable land intensive utilization model（SLIUM）. This model simulated the land use status of Beijing and analyzed variation of intensity under the different scenarios. The results show that： The variation of intensive degree follow the law of diminishing returns. The intensity will reach the optimal state in 2020-2060 under the current situation of Beijing social development. Through the adjustment of population, economy,land use and other different scenario analysis, land intensive degree can achieve periodic continuous increase. The model has passed validation test and its relation error controlled within ±5%. The results of this study provide a rational basis for land management and provide scientific decision support for policy-making.