烟台市旅游客运需求结构预测分析

Yantai passenger travel demand forecasting system design and development

近年来,随着烟台市旅游业的快速发展,到烟台的国内外游客数量不断增长,游客结构也在不断发生新变化,造成烟台中型以下旅游包车供求矛盾日益加剧.通过分析烟台旅游客运现状,包括旅游业发展现状、旅游客运市场现状以及旅游客运车辆情况,发现了旅游包车存在车辆数量不足以及结构不合理这两个主要问题.利用一元线性回归、直线趋势模型以及灰色预测模型3种方法的组合预测模型预测了旅游人次,根据调查所得到的比例确定了旅游旺季高峰期的旅游人次,并利用出行方式模型预测出各种类型等级车辆的数量,从而解决了旅游客运包车存在的问题,为旅游客运包车规划提供了依据.

In recent years, with the rapid development of tourism industry in Yantai, the growing number of domestic and foreign tourists to Yantai tourism, tourist structure has also been changed, which results in the increasing of contradiction between the supply and the demand for Yantai medium-sized travel cars. This paper analyzes the current situation of tourism development, tourism market and tourism vehicle condition, find two main problems in tourism charter： the vehicle shortage and unreasonasle structure, predict the tourist time using a linear regression prediction, tourism linear trend model and grey prediction model, determine the number of tourists in the peak tourist season according to the investigation of the proportion, and predict the number of various types of vehicle grade according to the travel mode. It can solve the existing problems of tourism passenger charter and provide reference for them.