岛屿系统旅游开发风险分析与控制策略——以海南省为例

Risk Analysis and Control Strategies of Island Tourism Systems Development——A Case Study of Hainan

目前,全球的海洋、海岛旅游胜地如夏威夷、马尔代夫、毛里求斯等,都随着全球范围内的旅游大开发取得了巨大发展,但同时也面临种种风险和挑战。作为我国著名的海岛旅游胜地和最具有代表性的岛屿旅游目的地,海南在国际旅游岛开发与建设的过程中取得了一定成绩和经验,但同时也面临各种风险和发展问题。通过对海南岛屿系统风险因素进行识别和分析发现,自然风险、环境风险、管理风险、经济风险、社会风险、政治风险、法规风险都是影响其旅游开发和长远发展的重要因素。并且通过进一步的风险评价可知,其中管理风险、社会风险、经济风险、法规风险影响较大,但总体处于可控范围内。因此,应针对相应的风险类型提出相应的科学规划、统筹考虑各种社会因素、加强旅游基础设施投资和各项旅游法规的建立健全,并应完善海洋保护管理体系,注重自然灾害的预防和生态环境的保护。

At present, some global ocean islands have successfully developed as tourism resorts such as Hawaii, Maldives and Mauritius, but also faced various risks and challenges along with the tourism development of world-wide. The same issues will challenge Hainan island tourism where has considerably developed for two decades as China＇ s famous island resort and the most representative of the island tourism destination. By analytic hierarchy process to analyze the risk factors of tourism development, this research has accessed the main risk which included risks in natural, environment, management, economy, society, politics and policy for Hainan. Risks in management, society, economy and policy are the main risks and under the control according to the development current status and tourism development through fuzzy comprehensive risk evaluation, which the corresponding risk type and risk control measures for example scientific planning, overall consideration of various social factors, strengthening investment and laws and regulations for tourism were given for future Hainan＇ s tourism development.