循环效应及其在能源消耗与经济增长关系中的实证分析

The Cyclic Effect and Its Application in Analysis of Economic Growth of Energy Consumption

一些变量相互影响,在相互作用过程中可能形成循环效应,已有研究表明能源消耗与经济增长呈正相关或存在双向因果关系;现做进一步深入研究,目的是研究能源消耗与经济增长之间的相互作用路径,即循环效应.包括技术进步在此循环过程中的中介效应,固定资产投资在此循环过程中的调节作用;采用二阶最小二乘(2LS)算法进行模型估计.采集1990-2012年数据,进行循环过程中的中介效应检验和有中介的调节效应检验.实证表明能源消耗和经济增长之间存在循环效应,技术进步在能源消耗和经济增长之间起循环的中介作用;固定资产投资在能源消耗引起经济增长过程中的调节作用部分地通过技术进步发挥作用,在经济增长引起能源消耗过程中的调节作用完全地通过技术进步发挥作用.

Some variables influence each other,and in the progress there may be cyclical effect.The existing research shows energy consumption and economic growth are positively related,and there is bidirectional causality between them.Now for further study,the purposes of this paper is to study the cyclic effect of energy consumption and economic growth,including the mediating effect of technology and the moderating effect of fixed assets investment in the cycling process.So,based on the cyclic relationship,the mediated cyclical effect model and the mediated moderator cyclical effect model are established.The 2-stage Least Square（2LS） algorithm is used to finish the estimations.1990-2012 years Chinas＇ data of economic growth,energy consumption,technical progress and fixed assets investment are collected to provide the test of mediating effects and mediated moderator in the cyclical progress.The empirical results show that there is cyclical effect between energy consumption and economic growth;technological progress is the mediator in the cyclic process;the moderating effect of fixed asset investment in the progress of energy consumption to economic growth is partly playing a role through technical progress;and in the progress of economic growth to energy consumption,the moderating effect of fixed asset investment is fully play its role through technological progress.