桂林市气候变暖特征及其对柑桔物候期的影响

Characteristics of Climate Warming in Guilin and Its Impact on Phenological Phases of Local Citrus

利用桂林市1984-2014年气候资料和同期柑桔物候资料,运用线性倾向估计、SPSS相关系数等方法研究了桂林市气候变暖的特征及其对柑桔物候期的影响。结果表明:31年中桂林市气候变暖趋势明显,其主要特点是年平均气温上升幅度约为0.4℃,20世纪90年代后期和21世纪初升温显著,在升温过程中以春季升温为主,冬季次之,夏季、秋季略升温,气候变暖春季气温升高贡献最大。气候变暖引起柑桔物候期的变化明显,春季物候期提前,秋季物候期推迟,生长季呈延长的趋势;气温是影响柑桔物候期最为显著的气象因子;2月平均最高气温升高1℃,柑桔芽开放期提前约3.4天,3月平均最高气温升高1℃,开花期提前约4.9天,年极端最高气温升高1℃,可采成熟期推迟6.8天。

After comparing the climate data of 1984 to 2014in Guilin with local citrus growth cycle data for the same period,with the application of the linear trend estimation,correlation coefficients of SPSS and other methods,the characteristics of Guilins climate warming and its impact on the phenological phase of local citrus are studied.The results shows that the warming trend in Guilin in 31 years was obvious,with the following main features：the annual average temperature rose by about 0.4 ℃;the climate in the late1990 sand early 2000 sheated up significantly,with the main and the most significant warming in spring and winter,slight warming in summer and fall.On the other hand,the change of local citruss phenological phase caused by climate warming was marked,thus spring phenological phase came in advance while autumn phenological phase delayed,contributing to a trend of growing season being extended.In addition,temperature is the most distinctive meteorological factor that impacts the local citruss phenological phase greatly.February average maximum temperature increased by 1℃;therefore,orange buds opened in advance about 3to 4days;the March average maximum temperature increased by 1℃,so the flowering period came in advance about 4to 9days;because the annual extreme maximum temperature increased by 1 ℃,the maturity postponed 6.8days.