Logistic模型曲线的中国广告产业发展阶段判断及预测

Judgment and Forecast of Advertising Industry Development Stage in China Based on Logistic Model

广告产业发展阶段的研究对提高我国广告产业政策制定的科学性和增强广告产业发展战略前瞻性具有重要意义。利用Logistic回归模型可以推算出我国广告产业正处于成长后期,并且很快会进入成熟期。现阶段我国广告产业竞争格局有所变化,资本与技术成为推动产业发展的主导力量。今后一段时期制度完善、要素禀赋提升和人力资源平台打造将是广告产业的建设重点。

The research of advertising industry development stage is of great significance to improve the scientific nature of China＇s advertising industry policy making and to enhance the development of advertising industry. Logistic model can be used to calculate the advertising industry is in the growth stage, and will enter the mature period very soon. At this stage, China＇s advertising industry competition pattern has changed. Capital and technology are the leading force to promote the development of the industry. In the next period of time, the perfection of the system, the improvement of the factor endowment and the construction of the human resources platform will be the key points of the development of the advertising industry.